Application of Lee-Carter Model in Predicting Mortality
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
mortality forecasting based on lee-carter model
over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
15 صفحه اولTesting for a unit root in Lee-Carter mortality model
Xuan Leng1 and Liang Peng2 Abstract. Motivated by a recent discovery that the two-step inference for Lee-Carter mortality model is inconsistent when the mortality index does not follow from a nearly integrated AR(1) process, we propose a test for unit root in a Lee-Carter model with an AR(2) process for the mortality index. Although testing for a unit root has been studied extensively in econom...
متن کاملUnderstanding the Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method
We demonstrate here several previously unrecognized or insufficiently appreciated properties of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting approach, a method used widely in both the academic literature and practical applications. We show that this model is a special case of a considerably simpler, and less often biased, random walk with drift model, and prove that the age profile forecast from both a...
متن کاملLee-Carter Mortality Forecasting: Methodological and Computational Issues
Acknowledgments This thesis has been submitted to the University " Federico II " of Napoli in fulfilment of the requirements for the Doctoral degree in Matematica per l'Analisi Economica e la Finanza at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics. to thank Steven for this enjoyable and productive visit. I would like also to thank the Board of the Doctoral Program at the University of Napoli fo...
متن کامل1 Mortality Modeling : Lee - Carter and the Macroeconomy
Using data for six OECD countries, the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the mortality index kt in the popular Lee-Carter model is studied. For the period 1950–2005, significant positive correlations are found with real GDP growth rates in Australia, Canada, and the United States, as well as with unemployment rate changes in Japan. Further correlation analysis and stability testing reveals ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Statistical and Application
سال: 2015
ISSN: 2325-2251,2325-226X
DOI: 10.12677/sa.2015.43017